Know your numbers before you set the goal.

This compares your trailing 7-day average weight to the 7-day average before that — the same daily-weigh-in-plus-weekly-average method used by top physique and performance coaches to filter out day-to-day water and food noise. The difference between those two averages, converted through 3,500 kcal/lb, backs out your real-world daily calorie balance and adjusts your estimated maintenance calories to match. It assumes you're actually eating at your target — if intake doesn't match the target, the adjustment will be inaccurate. A single weekly weigh-in still works fine, it just behaves like a 1-point average; logging daily gets you a cleaner signal, faster. Needs at least 5 days of history before it adjusts anything, and each adjustment is capped to avoid overreacting to one noisy stretch.